About the Nightly CTV/Globe/Nanos Tracking and its methodology

The Nightly Nanos Election Tracking is produced by Nanos Research, CTV News and the Globe and Mail. The data is based on dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone interviews using live agents of 1,200 Canadians using a three night rolling average of 400 respondents each evening, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,200 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a three night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, where each evening the oldest group of 400 interviews is dropped and a new group of 400 interviews is added.

A random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The questions in the Nanos Nightly Tracking are as follows:

  1. What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern?

For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE ORDER]

  1. Liberal Party
  2. Conservative Party
  3. NDP
  4. Bloc Québécois
  5. People’s Party of Canada
  6. Green Party

Would consider………………………….. 1

Would not consider……………………. 2

Unsure………………………………………..77

  1. For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? [Unprompted] [ 1ST CHOICE, 2ND CHOICE RANK]

Liberal [Skip to Q4] …………………… 1

Conservative [Skip to Q4] ………… 2

NDP [Skip to Q4] ………………………. 3

Bloc [Skip to Q4] ……………………….. 4

Green Party [Skip to Q4] …………… 5

People’s Party of Canada [Skip to Q4] ……………6

Other[Specify & skip to Q4]……….. 7

Undecided [Go to Q3] ………………. 77

  1. Are you currently leaning towards any particular FEDERAL party? If you are, which party would that be? [Unprompted]

Leaning Liberal………………………….. 1

Leaning CP…………………………………. 2

Leaning NDP……………………………… 3

Leaning Bloc……………………………….. 4

Leaning Green……………………………. 5

Leaning People’s Party……………………………. 6

Still undecided……………………………. 77

No answer/Refused………………….. 99

As you may know, at the federal level, [ROTATE] Justin Trudeau is the leader of Liberal Party, Andrew Scheer is the leader of the Conservative Party, Mario Beaulieu is the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Jagmeet Singh is the leader of the  NDP, Elizabeth May is leader of the Green Party, and Maxime Bernier is the leader of the People’s Party of Canada.

9. Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current preferences for Prime Minister? [ 1ST CHOICE, 2ND CHOICE RANK]

Justin Trudeau (Liberal)…………….. 1

Andrew Scheer (Conservative)… 2

Jagmeet Singh (NDP)……………… 3

Yves-François Blanchet(BQ)………………………. 4

Elizabeth May (Green)……………….. 5

Maxime Bernier (People’s Party)……………….. 6

Don’t know…………………………………. 77

No answer/Refused………………….. 99

For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE ORDER]

10. Justin Trudeau

11. Andrew Scheer

12. Jagmeet Singh

13. Yves-François Blanchet

14. Elizabeth May

15. Maxime Bernier

Have…………………………………………….. 1

Not have……………………………………… 2

Unsure…………………………………………. 77

The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions include:

– a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;
– a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;
– the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,
– whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.

Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

The views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another.